Friday, December 14, 2007

Well this is interesting.

I happened upon a Democracy For America poll that allows for a sort of virtual elimination analysis in determining candidate support. Eliminating all but Dennis Kucinich, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Kucinich comes out on top.

Remove Obama from the picture, and support goes not to Clinton but to Edwards, narrowing the gap with Kucinich. Take Clinton away, and you get a similar result, with votes going not to Clinton but to Edwards -- and with Kucinich still ahead by a wide margin. And now the funny thing. In a race between only Kucinich and Edwards, it's a very close result. By contrast, Kucinich trounces Clinton by a wide margin of the vote. In a Kucinich vs Obama race, Obama does better nationally but it's still Kucinich by a wide margin in the key state of Ohio. What's interesting is that Obama and Clinton take votes away from Edwards, as opposed to DFA's favorite. Remove Edwards from the equation, and it's Obama who prospers, with Billary coming in at a distant third. This is what's interesting. Dennis does better against Clinton than he does against Obama, but in either one-on-one contest it's still the Representative from Ohio by a comfortable margin. And as I pointed out, the DFA poll gives Edwards the best shot at giving Dennis a run for his money. Nationally, it's a virtual tie, while Kucinich still carries his home state in any scenario.

Just some food for thought.

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